club_preseason.py

#!/usr/bin/env python3
"""五大联赛当前赛季季前概率预计算 → data/club/preseason_<码>.json。

网页联赛 tab 直读 JSON（毫秒级），避免请求内跑 5000 次模拟。
参赛名单直接取 ESPN 已发布的整季赛程，不再维护会过期的手工升班马表；模型按场路由：
一般对阵走纯顶级联赛模型，涉及近 7 季顶级池外新面孔时走已回测裁决的 feeder 合训模型。
用法：python3 club_preseason.py [E0 SP1 ...]（无参=全部五联赛）
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import datetime as dt
import json
import os
import sys
import tempfile

import clubdata
import clubfixtures
import clubpredict
import clubsim

SEASON = "2026-27"
SIMS = 5000


def path_for(code: str) -> str:
    return os.path.join(os.path.dirname(__file__), "data", "club", f"preseason_{code}.json")


def build(code: str, sims: int = SIMS) -> dict:
    fx = clubfixtures.load_cached(code)
    teams = sorted(set(fx.home_team) | set(fx.away_team)) if len(fx) else []
    df = clubdata.load(code)
    previous = df[df.date >= df.date.max() - __import__("pandas").Timedelta(days=330)]
    expected = len(set(previous.home_team) | set(previous.away_team))
    if len(teams) != expected:
        raise RuntimeError(f"{code} ESPN 参赛名单不完整：{len(teams)}，期望 {expected}")
    newcomers = clubpredict.promoted_newcomers(code)
    base = clubpredict.get_club_model(code, verbose=False)
    promo = clubpredict.get_promoted_model(code, verbose=False) if newcomers else None
    class RoutedModel:
        def score_matrix(self, home, away, neutral=False):
            m = promo if promo is not None and (home in newcomers or away in newcomers) else base
            return m.score_matrix(home, away, neutral=neutral)
    facts = df.iloc[0:0]
    sim = clubsim.SeasonSimulator(RoutedModel(), teams, facts,
                                  clubsim.remaining_pairs(facts, teams), sims=sims,
                                  tiebreak=clubsim.LEAGUE_TIEBREAK.get(code, "gd"))
    rows = sim.run()
    return {
        "league": clubdata.LEAGUES[code], "code": code, "season": SEASON, "mode": "preseason",
        "sims": sims, "computed_at": dt.datetime.now().strftime("%Y-%m-%d %H:%M"),
        "data_through": str(df.date.max().date()),
        "source": "football-data.co.uk + ESPN scoreboard",
        "teams": teams, "promoted_newcomers": sorted(newcomers),
        "promoted_feeder": clubdata.FEEDER[code],
        "promoted_feeder_weight": clubpredict.PROMOTED_FEEDER_W[code],
        "rows": rows,
    }


def main(codes: list[str] | None = None):
    # 库调用方（warmup/测试）显式传 codes，不继承宿主进程的 argv；
    # 只有直接 CLI 执行才读 sys.argv。
    codes = list(codes) if codes is not None else (sys.argv[1:] or list(clubfixtures.LEAGUE_SLUG))
    for code in codes:
        print(f"[preseason] {code} 模拟 {SIMS} 次…", flush=True)
        d = build(code)
        path = path_for(code)
        fd, tmp = tempfile.mkstemp(dir=os.path.dirname(path), prefix=f".preseason_{code}.")
        try:
            with os.fdopen(fd, "w", encoding="utf-8") as f:
                json.dump(d, f, ensure_ascii=False, indent=1)
            os.replace(tmp, path)
        finally:
            if os.path.exists(tmp):
                os.remove(tmp)
        top = d["rows"][0]
        print(f"[preseason] {code} 完成：{top['team']} 夺冠 {top['title']*100:.1f}% "
              f"→ {path_for(code)}", flush=True)


if __name__ == "__main__":
    main(None)