AI Energy-Demand Forecast Scorecard — interactive

An interactive front-end to The AI Energy-Demand Forecast Scorecard: a reproducible audit of how the field forecasts data-centre electricity demand — scored on dispersion, the forecasters' own revisions, and transparency. It is a scorecard of forecaster behaviour, not a forecast.

Live tool: https://nmairesearch.github.io/forecast-scorecard/ Canonical record (frozen, citable): DOI 10.5281/zenodo.20572928 Author: NM AI Research · ORCID 0009-0003-4213-7769 · Licence CC BY 4.0

What it does

Two views, switched at the top:

• Forecasts. All 11 forecasts in their published units, scopes and horizons. Dispersion is computed only within a comparable slice (same scope, metric, unit, horizon) — narrow Scope + Unit to compare like with like. Leave them on "All" and the banner reports how many incompatible formats the field is using (the heterogeneity finding). Self-revisions are shown where a forecaster changed its own number; all logged revisions point up.
• Transparency funnel. Three nested tiers computed from the table: verified (confirmable against any credible source) ⊃ confirmable at the primary source (author-published) ⊃ reproducible (model rebuildable from public method + data). The gap between verified and reproducible is the headline: most figures can be quoted, few can be rebuilt.

The page embeds forecast_scorecard_data.csv verbatim, so it never goes stale and is not "live" — the canonical, citable version is the Zenodo DOI above.

Files

• index.html — the interactive tool, self-contained (no dependencies, no server needed).
• forecast_scorecard_data.csv — the frozen forecast dataset.
• build.py — regenerates index.html by embedding the CSV (pure standard library). Edit the CSV, run python3 build.py, commit.

The full reproduce script (forecast_scorecard_reproduce.py) and write-up live in the Zenodo record.

Guardrails

This scores how the field forecasts; it is not a forecast and takes no view on which number is right. "Opaque" means the model is proprietary / not reproducible, not that the figure is wrong. Units and scopes are not interchangeable: TWh, GW and % are different things; US is not Global; 2030 is not 2035.

Disclosure

No third party reviewed, funded, or directed this work. The author holds no position that depends on any of these forecasts being right.

Licence

Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0).