base-rate

An LLM guardrail proxy that publishes what guardrails omit: how much of a detected secret reached the client before the stream was cut, whether a firing detector is right often enough at the route's real prevalence, what an attacker gains by making it slow, and which evasions survive.

Cross-border early warning from Ukrainian air-alert feeds. A base-rate gate a rule must clear before it may wake anyone: recall, a shared alarm budget, association. Two timing regimes, four alert states, unknown never printed as zero. No probability of impact, and no model fitted to a dozen events.