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empirical-bayes

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Offline Dota 2 draft advisor and hero-pool guide. Mines divine-immortal STRATZ drafts into DuckDB, then empirical-Bayes shrinkage, cross-validated ALS matrix completion, rank normalization, and expectimax-style scoring with weights fitted by guarded coordinate ascent. Apriori, Naive Bayes, k-NN, and bagged ensembles benchmark the model.

  • Updated Oct 7, 2026
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