Measured result: on 654 later-test windows, adding OpenCGM-StateEvent features to glucose-summary Ridge changed 60-minute MAE by −0.30 mg/dL, with a paired 95% interval of −0.87 to +0.34. All eight horizon-by-period intervals included zero. The frozen community encoder did not establish additional forecasting value.
| Later retrospective test: 12 weeks | 60-minute MAE, mg/dL |
|---|---|
| Persistence | 42.59 |
| Eight glucose/time summaries + Ridge | 37.66 |
| Same summaries + 128 frozen encoder features + Ridge | 37.36 |
Read the eight-page paper · Manuscript · All results · Frozen protocol · Measured evidence
Requires Python 3.14 and an internet connection for the first run. From a fresh clone:
python3 demo.pyThe command creates an isolated environment, installs the pinned runtime, then:
- Downloads the revision-pinned public checkpoint and corresponding source files.
- Verifies every download's SHA-256, including matching the GitHub and Hugging Face encoder bytes.
- Runs local CPU inference on constant, ramp, sinusoidal, sparse and empty synthetic inputs.
- Executes the seven original scientific-contract tests and four download-integrity tests.
- Writes the actual environment, hashes and outcomes to
.demo-output/report.json.
Expected final output:
PASS — frozen encoder on synthetic glucose, 7 scientific contract tests, 4 download-integrity tests.
CPU only; no CareLink inputs, personal embeddings or personal predictions used.
Report: .demo-output/report.json
Subsequent cached runs can use python3 demo.py --offline. Downloads are cached
under .cache/opencgm/. The demo verifies executable inference and evaluation
contracts; reproducing the paper's personal forecast scores requires the private
CareLink inputs. The CI job runs the same command on Ubuntu CPU without secrets.
- Checkpoint identity: exact revision, file hashes, tensor shapes, units and embedding extraction.
- Causal input boundaries: observed-only glucose bins; future readings cannot enter history.
- Clock handling: ambiguous clock days exclude whole history/target support; original records remain intact.
- Leakage controls: full-support temporal purging, training-only scaling and fitting, validation-only tuning.
- Paired uncertainty: every arm uses identical events; week resampling retains unequal event counts correctly.
- Artifact integrity: corrupt cached or downloaded weights stop the demo before inference.
The personal evaluation used 11,044 eligible windows from 15 exports spanning May 2023–September 2026. Its later test is retrospective; the January–June 2026 slice is explicitly exploratory. Losses receive the same reporting as gains. The study is complete at this checkpoint.
This evaluates OpenCGM-StateEvent, an independent community reconstruction, seed 17 / epoch 40. It does not evaluate Google's GlucoFM weights.
- Model
- Corresponding source
- Encoder SHA-256:
b1349deffd15ab62a5a98d7c7c4a7e143bcf1dee7ad745b1e05533ff54f34768
The checkpoint's pretraining history remains maintainer-reported. Its encoder is licensed CC-BY-NC-4.0; upstream source is Apache-2.0. The demo downloads those artifacts from their pinned public locations; model weights and personal records are not included in this repository. See third-party provenance.
| Path | Purpose |
|---|---|
demo.py, scripts/, .github/workflows/ci.yml |
Public bootstrap, synthetic adapter and CPU CI |
carelink-local/ |
Byte-identical measured evaluation scripts and seven original tests |
demo-lock.json |
Public download URLs, revisions, sizes and SHA-256s |
release-manifest.json |
Explicit publication allowlist and file fingerprints |
assets/article/ |
Non-reconstructive aggregate evidence and paired-effect figure |
paper/ |
PDF, editable typesetting source and aggregate-only paper builder |
The public adapter changes cache locations and the smoke-report output sink only;
the original inference, preprocessing, fitting and uncertainty functions retain
their measured-run fingerprints. context_comparison.py is included because the
completed comparison imports its Ridge helpers; its historical meal experiment is
not part of the public demo. Paper build instructions.
Author: Ibraim Abduramanov. Citation metadata.